Q1 of this year was full of whiplash. Rates jumped around, headlines changed by the week, and nobody quite knew what to plan for.

Q2 calmed down. Rates found a range. Inventory grew. Buyers who’d been sitting out started coming back, carefully. Sellers reset their expectations on pricing and timelines.

The market didn’t get simple. It got easier to read. Here’s what the data shows, and what it means for you right now.

Mortgage Rates Held Steadier

Early in the year, rates bounced around week to week, reacting to inflation reports and global headlines. That volatility eased up by Q2. Freddie Mac had the 30-year fixed sitting between 6.43% and 6.49% through late June and into July. A year ago, it was closer to 6.8%.

On a $440,000 home, that gap can save a buyer over $100 a month, more once you factor in the loan term. Run the numbers on your own budget and that adds up fast over a year.

Global events could push rates around again. But for now, buyers have something concrete to plan around instead of chasing a moving target.

Prices Depend on Where You’re Standing

National headlines say prices hit a record. NAR reported the median existing home price at $440,600 in June, 36 straight months of gains without a single monthly dip.

Realtor.com‘s own tracking tells a different story: asking prices down 2.5% year over year in June, the steepest drop since 2017, eight months straight of price cuts. Redfin lands in the middle, with sale prices up 2.5% to $408,814.

Here’s how both can be true. NAR tracks closed sales, and those numbers skew toward pricier homes trading hands. Realtor.com tracks what sellers ask for when they list, and sellers are pulling back to attract offers. Redfin’s dollar figure is lower than NAR’s because it covers a different mix of markets and calculates the median differently, but the direction matches NAR: sale prices are higher than they were a year ago. Realtor.com is the real outlier here, and that’s because it’s measuring what sellers hope to get, not what buyers end up paying.

Realtor.com called it a two Americas market, and the regional numbers back it up. Prices are falling in the West and South, in places like Austin and Memphis, where affordability finally hit a wall. They’re climbing in the Midwest and Northeast, in cities like Providence and Indianapolis, where supply just hasn’t caught up to demand.

If you’re selling in a tight market, don’t expect to need a discount to attract offers. If you’re in a market that ran up fast the last few years, you may have more negotiating room than the national number suggests.

Buyers Got More Room to Breathe

Inventory is loosening up after years of a tight market. Homes for sale hit 1.56 million units by the end of June, up 1.3% from last year. That’s about 4.6 months of supply, short of the 6 months that marks a balanced market, but a number that would have felt out of reach two years ago.

Redfin puts the number in a similar range, close to 1.5 million active listings, the most since the pandemic. The two counts don’t match exactly because NAR and Redfin track different slices of the market and pull their snapshots at different points in the month, but the direction agrees: more homes are sitting on the market than a year ago.

More homes on the market change the pace for buyers. They can compare instead of settling. They can negotiate instead of racing five other offers. Homes are sitting longer before going under contract too, which buys time to actually think a decision through.

Sellers Pulled Back

New listings started slipping right as summer began, usually the busiest stretch for new homes hitting the market. Sellers are watching soft demand and choosing to wait it out instead.

A lot of these sellers are also buyers, and that’s the sticking point. Trading a low rate locked in years ago for something near 6.5% today feels like a hard sell for most homeowners. Economists call this the rate lock-in effect. Someone sitting on a 3.5% mortgage from 2021 loses real money every month by moving up right now, even with equity built into their current home. That math is keeping a lot of inventory off the market.

For sellers who do list anyway, the payoff is less competition. Fewer comparable homes means more eyes on yours.

Demand Slowed, But It Didn’t Stop

Sales dipped 2.4% from May to June. They’re still up 2.8% from a year ago, which makes this a pause rather than a warning sign. May had been the strongest month for sales since December, so a pullback after that kind of jump tracks with a normal rhythm.

Pending sales, the ones about to close, rose for the seventh month in a row. That number tells you more about where things are headed than any single month of closed sales does.

First-time buyers made up 33% of June sales, up from 30% last year. They’re usually the most rate-sensitive group in the market, and the first to disappear when affordability tightens. Their share is growing instead of shrinking, says buyers are adjusting to these rates, not waiting them out.

What This Means for You

If you’re buying, you have more room to negotiate than you’ve had in years. Nearly half of sellers gave concessions recently, the highest share on record for this time of year. That can look like covering closing costs, paying for repairs found in the inspection, or cutting the price outright. Ask for what you need. A home that’s already sat on the market for a few weeks has more room to give than one that has just been listed.

If you’re selling, get the price right from day one. Buyers have options, and they use them. A home that needs a price cut after 30 days on the market often ends up selling for less than if it had been priced accurately from the start. Homes priced well and shown well are moving fast. The rest are sitting.

What I’m Seeing Right Now

There’s a mix of stress and relief out there.

Buyers feel stress about rates, but relief when the math finally works on a home they love. Sellers feel stress when a listing sits, but relief once it’s priced right and offers start coming in.

The mindset has shifted too. People aren’t chasing a perfect moment anymore. They’re making decisions that fit their life right now.

What’s Ahead

More buyers could come back in the second half of the year if rates hold or ease a little. The demand hasn’t gone anywhere. It’s parked, waiting on rates and the broader economy to give it a reason to move.

Most forecasters aren’t calling for a dramatic swing in either direction. The expectation right now is a market that stays close to where it is, maybe leaning a bit more balanced, rather than tipping hard toward buyers or sellers.

If you’re trying to time your next move, that steadiness is worth something on its own.

Want to talk through what any of this means for your specific plans? Reach out and let’s map it out together.

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